"Maybe the alarmists do have worldview problems. That still ain’t an argument for why an AGI catastrophe can’t occur." <-- This is a very important point. I think most of the alarmists do have worldview problems, but they also seem to understand the technical problems much better than the non-alarmists. To acknowledge that fact isn't too endorse the alarmists' worldview.
Thank you for this, the best article I've read on such a complex topic. I certainly did not expect to laugh so loudly whilst contemplating the demise of our civilisation. Unfortunately though, I'll never unsee the visual of the toilet position, hehe :))
Just so you know... Google's toilettes have (or at least very recently had) butt warmers and bidets.
There are reports they are getting rid of them as a cost saving measure, though I haven't it seen for myself to confirm or disconfirm, since I don't work there anymore.
When I interviewed there, in 2013, I felt like I could spin around and point at a random thing, and whatever I pointed at, I would be pointing at something that someone else had ALREADY spun around and randomly pointed at, and then decide to spend several weeks optimizing. It was a nice feeling.
One theory I have for WHY our civilization is collapsing is that maybe all the smart people became programmers, and then there were none left over to be judges and governors and presidents and humanities professors and attorneys who can actually think coherently and stuff? I'm not totally sure of this hypothesis, but it kind of explains a lot of things I've seen :-(
On the other hand: I left for various reasons, but even back then, even inside Google, there was basically zero appetite anywhere in the management echelons for "either trying to cause a coherently benevolent singularity, on purpose, with math, and QA, and a coherently purposeful plan... or else just not doing any AI stuff at all".
EVEN WITH NICE TOILETTES they couldn't seem to actually think clearly, inside Google, about what would be good or bad to create when it came to AI stuff. I left in at the end of 2017. Maybe they got better at it since them? Hopefully they did? :crossed_fingers:
Thank you for this comment. That’s an interesting/worrying insight into Google’s culture. I wonder if the brain drain to programming (I’d add finance & corporate law in there as well) is as much about cognitive style as smarts. So like the high-decouplers used to be better represented in high level government & able to actually make & interpret laws in a rational way rather than be swayed by ideology, signalling, etc.
AI Apocalypse is ineed coming. Most of companies relie on fossil fuels to power growing network of datacenters. The demand for fresh water for cooling the centers is growing at an alarming rate in a world where fresh water becomes scarce quickly. There is no reliable data showing that the increase in greenhouse gas emissions associated with AI is temporary and emissions will decrease in the coming years. The AI market is almost completely unregulated.
Despite what techno-enthusiasts say, there is no concentrated effort to use AI/LLMs to address climate crisis, on the contrary, e.g. Microsoft provides oil and gas companies with AI to increase extraction. Vast majority of AI applications are toys and junk.
Even without AI, we have known for years how to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, but we don't do it. We want to increase consumption indefinitely and pretend that something magical can be done so that burning fossil fuels doesn't create a greenhouse effect. Previously blockchain, now AI plays a role of this magic thing.
Enthusiatic visions of the future are manufactured by PR departments or people who have a financial interest in selling AI/LLM products, such as Eric Schmidt.
"Maybe the alarmists do have worldview problems. That still ain’t an argument for why an AGI catastrophe can’t occur." <-- This is a very important point. I think most of the alarmists do have worldview problems, but they also seem to understand the technical problems much better than the non-alarmists. To acknowledge that fact isn't too endorse the alarmists' worldview.
Amen. It seems like it’s difficult for people involved in public discussions to accept this subtlety. Thanks for reading!
Thank you for this, the best article I've read on such a complex topic. I certainly did not expect to laugh so loudly whilst contemplating the demise of our civilisation. Unfortunately though, I'll never unsee the visual of the toilet position, hehe :))
Thank you for reading! I’m glad I could have an impact.
That mental image I have of the pooping position made my absolute day, thank you sir
Thank YOU. Glad I could imprint that on someone else’s consciousness.
Just so you know... Google's toilettes have (or at least very recently had) butt warmers and bidets.
There are reports they are getting rid of them as a cost saving measure, though I haven't it seen for myself to confirm or disconfirm, since I don't work there anymore.
https://nypost.com/2022/03/25/google-gets-rid-of-heated-bidet-toilets-for-employees/
When I interviewed there, in 2013, I felt like I could spin around and point at a random thing, and whatever I pointed at, I would be pointing at something that someone else had ALREADY spun around and randomly pointed at, and then decide to spend several weeks optimizing. It was a nice feeling.
One theory I have for WHY our civilization is collapsing is that maybe all the smart people became programmers, and then there were none left over to be judges and governors and presidents and humanities professors and attorneys who can actually think coherently and stuff? I'm not totally sure of this hypothesis, but it kind of explains a lot of things I've seen :-(
On the other hand: I left for various reasons, but even back then, even inside Google, there was basically zero appetite anywhere in the management echelons for "either trying to cause a coherently benevolent singularity, on purpose, with math, and QA, and a coherently purposeful plan... or else just not doing any AI stuff at all".
EVEN WITH NICE TOILETTES they couldn't seem to actually think clearly, inside Google, about what would be good or bad to create when it came to AI stuff. I left in at the end of 2017. Maybe they got better at it since them? Hopefully they did? :crossed_fingers:
Thank you for this comment. That’s an interesting/worrying insight into Google’s culture. I wonder if the brain drain to programming (I’d add finance & corporate law in there as well) is as much about cognitive style as smarts. So like the high-decouplers used to be better represented in high level government & able to actually make & interpret laws in a rational way rather than be swayed by ideology, signalling, etc.
AI Apocalypse is ineed coming. Most of companies relie on fossil fuels to power growing network of datacenters. The demand for fresh water for cooling the centers is growing at an alarming rate in a world where fresh water becomes scarce quickly. There is no reliable data showing that the increase in greenhouse gas emissions associated with AI is temporary and emissions will decrease in the coming years. The AI market is almost completely unregulated.
Despite what techno-enthusiasts say, there is no concentrated effort to use AI/LLMs to address climate crisis, on the contrary, e.g. Microsoft provides oil and gas companies with AI to increase extraction. Vast majority of AI applications are toys and junk.
Even without AI, we have known for years how to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, but we don't do it. We want to increase consumption indefinitely and pretend that something magical can be done so that burning fossil fuels doesn't create a greenhouse effect. Previously blockchain, now AI plays a role of this magic thing.
Enthusiatic visions of the future are manufactured by PR departments or people who have a financial interest in selling AI/LLM products, such as Eric Schmidt.
1. AI brings soaring emissions for Google and Microsoft, a major contributor to climate change: https://www.npr.org/2024/07/12/g-s1-9545/ai-brings-soaring-emissions-for-google-and-microsoft-a-major-contributor-to-climate-change
2. AI Is Pushing The World Toward An Energy Crisis: https://www.forbes.com/sites/arielcohen/2024/05/23/ai-is-pushing-the-world-towards-an-energy-crisis/
3. Google emissions jump nearly 50% over five years as AI use surges
https://www.ft.com/content/383719aa-df38-4ae3-ab0e-6279a897915e
4. Google’s greenhouse gas emissions are soaring thanks to AI
https://edition.cnn.com/2024/07/03/tech/google-ai-greenhouse-gas-emissions-environmental-impact/index.html
I wasn’t expecting to laugh out loud reading a post about the existential risk of AI and nuclear weapons. Bravo!